{
  "project": "canada-housing-cost-drivers",
  "question": "What drove the 4.5x rise in Toronto construction costs, 1981-2026?",
  "target": "NHPI house-only, Toronto CMA (4.52x); land-only 2.90x",
  "normalization_rules": [
    "Levels only: every input is a StatCan -01 level table; no percent-change tables used.",
    "Rebased to 1981=100 where a 1981 observation exists; otherwise to first available year (recorded per series).",
    "Annual panel: January value for monthly series; Q1 for quarterly BCPI (labelled Q1, never January).",
    "Unadjusted series throughout.",
    "Toronto CMA = GEO 'Toronto, Ontario'; City of Toronto / CMA-part rows excluded (none present in these tables).",
    "No splicing of discontinued predecessors was needed: each built series is a single StatCan-linked vector."
  ],
  "series": {
    "nhpi_house_only_toronto": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0205-01",
        "title": "New Housing Price Index, house only",
        "vector": "reuse:nhpi_decomposition.json",
        "geography": "Toronto, Ontario (CMA)",
        "native_frequency": "Monthly",
        "native_base": "December 2016=100",
        "panel_period": "January",
        "rebase_year": 1981,
        "coverage": "1981-2026",
        "n_observations": 46,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Target series. Reused from canada-land-housing decomposition; not re-downloaded."
      },
      "values_1981_base": {
        "1981": 100.0,
        "1982": 124.78,
        "1983": 117.26,
        "1984": 115.49,
        "1985": 117.7,
        "1986": 129.2,
        "1987": 169.91,
        "1988": 196.46,
        "1989": 233.19,
        "1990": 244.69,
        "1991": 189.38,
        "1992": 184.07,
        "1993": 178.76,
        "1994": 175.66,
        "1995": 178.32,
        "1996": 178.32,
        "1997": 176.99,
        "1998": 187.61,
        "1999": 192.92,
        "2000": 199.12,
        "2001": 206.64,
        "2002": 213.27,
        "2003": 227.43,
        "2004": 245.58,
        "2005": 261.5,
        "2006": 272.57,
        "2007": 282.3,
        "2008": 297.79,
        "2009": 301.77,
        "2010": 308.41,
        "2011": 320.35,
        "2012": 344.69,
        "2013": 364.16,
        "2014": 370.35,
        "2015": 381.86,
        "2016": 402.65,
        "2017": 440.27,
        "2018": 456.64,
        "2019": 443.81,
        "2020": 436.73,
        "2021": 459.73,
        "2022": 496.46,
        "2023": 507.08,
        "2024": 497.79,
        "2025": 492.04,
        "2026": 463.72
      }
    },
    "bcpi_single_detached_toronto": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0289-01",
        "title": "Building construction price indexes, single-detached house, Division composite",
        "vector": "v1617912708",
        "geography": "Toronto, Ontario (CMA)",
        "native_frequency": "Quarterly",
        "native_base": "Index, 2023=100",
        "panel_period": "Q1 (labelled Q1, not January)",
        "rebase_year": 2017,
        "coverage": "2017-2026",
        "n_observations": 10,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Modern residential BCPI building-type detail starts 2017; no homogeneous 1981-2026 residential BCPI exists in this table. Rebasing to 2017=100 because no 1981 observation exists."
      },
      "values_2017_base": {
        "2017": 100.0,
        "2018": 109.63,
        "2019": 113.35,
        "2020": 115.54,
        "2021": 136.32,
        "2022": 178.12,
        "2023": 209.85,
        "2024": 227.13,
        "2025": 231.07,
        "2026": 233.26
      }
    },
    "bcpi_townhouse_toronto": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0289-01",
        "title": "Building construction price indexes, townhouse, Division composite",
        "vector": "v1617912732",
        "geography": "Toronto, Ontario (CMA)",
        "native_frequency": "Quarterly",
        "native_base": "Index, 2023=100",
        "panel_period": "Q1 (labelled Q1, not January)",
        "rebase_year": 2017,
        "coverage": "2017-2026",
        "n_observations": 10,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Modern residential BCPI building-type detail starts 2017; no homogeneous 1981-2026 residential BCPI exists in this table. Rebasing to 2017=100 because no 1981 observation exists."
      },
      "values_2017_base": {
        "2017": 100.0,
        "2018": 109.29,
        "2019": 112.96,
        "2020": 115.12,
        "2021": 135.85,
        "2022": 175.38,
        "2023": 207.56,
        "2024": 223.97,
        "2025": 229.37,
        "2026": 231.53
      }
    },
    "ippi_softwood_lumber": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0266-01",
        "title": "Industrial product price index, Softwood lumber",
        "vector": "v1230996125",
        "geography": "Canada (national; IPPI is national-only)",
        "native_frequency": "Monthly",
        "native_base": "Index, 202001=100",
        "panel_period": "January",
        "rebase_year": 1981,
        "coverage": "1981-2026",
        "n_observations": 46,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Single vector across NAPCS redesign; StatCan linked vintage. Factory-gate producer prices: treat as upstream price shock, not builder acquisition cost. "
      },
      "values_1981_base": {
        "1981": 100.0,
        "1982": 90.32,
        "1983": 110.42,
        "1984": 114.14,
        "1985": 107.94,
        "1986": 113.65,
        "1987": 118.86,
        "1988": 127.05,
        "1989": 121.59,
        "1990": 120.35,
        "1991": 111.66,
        "1992": 125.81,
        "1993": 186.35,
        "1994": 246.9,
        "1995": 217.12,
        "1996": 182.63,
        "1997": 245.91,
        "1998": 210.67,
        "1999": 214.39,
        "2000": 225.56,
        "2001": 166.75,
        "2002": 194.79,
        "2003": 178.66,
        "2004": 180.65,
        "2005": 191.56,
        "2006": 184.12,
        "2007": 170.97,
        "2008": 143.92,
        "2009": 150.12,
        "2010": 150.37,
        "2011": 161.79,
        "2012": 155.09,
        "2013": 197.02,
        "2014": 211.17,
        "2015": 222.58,
        "2016": 223.08,
        "2017": 226.3,
        "2018": 276.18,
        "2019": 235.48,
        "2020": 248.14,
        "2021": 508.19,
        "2022": 617.62,
        "2023": 300.74,
        "2024": 307.2,
        "2025": 354.09,
        "2026": 311.41
      }
    },
    "ippi_fabricated_metal": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0266-01",
        "title": "Industrial product price index, Fabricated metal products and construction materials (P-level aggregate)",
        "vector": "v1230996189",
        "geography": "Canada (national; IPPI is national-only)",
        "native_frequency": "Monthly",
        "native_base": "Index, 202001=100",
        "panel_period": "January",
        "rebase_year": 1981,
        "coverage": "1981-2026",
        "n_observations": 46,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Single vector across NAPCS redesign; StatCan linked vintage. Factory-gate producer prices: treat as upstream price shock, not builder acquisition cost. "
      },
      "values_1981_base": {
        "1981": 100.0,
        "1982": 109.56,
        "1983": 113.39,
        "1984": 116.94,
        "1985": 120.77,
        "1986": 125.41,
        "1987": 128.69,
        "1988": 133.88,
        "1989": 138.8,
        "1990": 142.35,
        "1991": 142.62,
        "1992": 141.26,
        "1993": 142.62,
        "1994": 147.27,
        "1995": 158.2,
        "1996": 165.03,
        "1997": 167.76,
        "1998": 171.86,
        "1999": 173.5,
        "2000": 176.5,
        "2001": 176.23,
        "2002": 178.14,
        "2003": 181.69,
        "2004": 183.88,
        "2005": 204.64,
        "2006": 204.92,
        "2007": 207.38,
        "2008": 209.84,
        "2009": 228.69,
        "2010": 216.67,
        "2011": 221.04,
        "2012": 223.77,
        "2013": 218.03,
        "2014": 223.22,
        "2015": 230.87,
        "2016": 239.62,
        "2017": 243.72,
        "2018": 253.01,
        "2019": 274.04,
        "2020": 273.22,
        "2021": 280.87,
        "2022": 378.96,
        "2023": 391.53,
        "2024": 380.87,
        "2025": 388.8,
        "2026": 400.55
      }
    },
    "ippi_readymix_concrete": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0266-01",
        "title": "Industrial product price index, Ready-mixed concrete",
        "vector": "v1230996317",
        "geography": "Canada (national; IPPI is national-only)",
        "native_frequency": "Monthly",
        "native_base": "Index, 202001=100",
        "panel_period": "January",
        "rebase_year": 1981,
        "coverage": "1981-2026",
        "n_observations": 46,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Single vector across NAPCS redesign; StatCan linked vintage. Factory-gate producer prices: treat as upstream price shock, not builder acquisition cost. "
      },
      "values_1981_base": {
        "1981": 100.0,
        "1982": 117.41,
        "1983": 125.86,
        "1984": 119.53,
        "1985": 121.37,
        "1986": 130.61,
        "1987": 135.36,
        "1988": 142.48,
        "1989": 148.55,
        "1990": 155.15,
        "1991": 151.19,
        "1992": 151.72,
        "1993": 149.34,
        "1994": 153.03,
        "1995": 158.31,
        "1996": 160.16,
        "1997": 159.89,
        "1998": 163.59,
        "1999": 163.85,
        "2000": 165.7,
        "2001": 174.14,
        "2002": 176.25,
        "2003": 177.84,
        "2004": 178.1,
        "2005": 186.28,
        "2006": 194.99,
        "2007": 203.69,
        "2008": 216.09,
        "2009": 220.32,
        "2010": 221.11,
        "2011": 222.69,
        "2012": 229.29,
        "2013": 230.87,
        "2014": 237.99,
        "2015": 233.25,
        "2016": 241.16,
        "2017": 246.44,
        "2018": 258.84,
        "2019": 250.13,
        "2020": 263.85,
        "2021": 265.17,
        "2022": 280.21,
        "2023": 327.44,
        "2024": 349.34,
        "2025": 359.89,
        "2026": 366.23
      }
    },
    "ippi_total": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0266-01",
        "title": "Industrial product price index, Total IPPI",
        "vector": "v1230996007",
        "geography": "Canada (national; IPPI is national-only)",
        "native_frequency": "Monthly",
        "native_base": "Index, 202001=100",
        "panel_period": "January",
        "rebase_year": 1981,
        "coverage": "1981-2026",
        "n_observations": 46,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Single vector across NAPCS redesign; StatCan linked vintage. Factory-gate producer prices: treat as upstream price shock, not builder acquisition cost. "
      },
      "values_1981_base": {
        "1981": 100.0,
        "1982": 108.37,
        "1983": 112.44,
        "1984": 117.87,
        "1985": 122.4,
        "1986": 124.89,
        "1987": 126.02,
        "1988": 131.9,
        "1989": 136.43,
        "1990": 135.29,
        "1991": 138.46,
        "1992": 133.03,
        "1993": 140.05,
        "1994": 143.89,
        "1995": 158.82,
        "1996": 161.54,
        "1997": 161.54,
        "1998": 162.9,
        "1999": 163.12,
        "2000": 169.23,
        "2001": 174.43,
        "2002": 172.4,
        "2003": 176.7,
        "2004": 171.04,
        "2005": 177.83,
        "2006": 182.35,
        "2007": 187.56,
        "2008": 188.24,
        "2009": 189.82,
        "2010": 190.27,
        "2011": 199.1,
        "2012": 206.79,
        "2013": 207.69,
        "2014": 212.67,
        "2015": 208.14,
        "2016": 211.76,
        "2017": 216.97,
        "2018": 221.95,
        "2019": 224.21,
        "2020": 226.24,
        "2021": 235.97,
        "2022": 274.43,
        "2023": 287.56,
        "2024": 278.96,
        "2025": 294.8,
        "2026": 311.54
      }
    },
    "ippi_iron_steel": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0266-01",
        "title": "Industrial product price index, Basic and semi-finished iron or steel products",
        "vector": "v1230996166",
        "geography": "Canada (national; IPPI is national-only)",
        "native_frequency": "Monthly",
        "native_base": "Index, 202001=100",
        "panel_period": "January",
        "rebase_year": 2010,
        "coverage": "2010-2026",
        "n_observations": 17,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Single vector across NAPCS redesign; StatCan linked vintage. Factory-gate producer prices: treat as upstream price shock, not builder acquisition cost. Detailed iron/steel products only start 2010; no 1981-2009 series in this table."
      },
      "values_2010_base": {
        "2010": 100.0,
        "2011": 104.69,
        "2012": 107.04,
        "2013": 101.88,
        "2014": 107.39,
        "2015": 112.79,
        "2016": 100.12,
        "2017": 104.46,
        "2018": 105.52,
        "2019": 122.3,
        "2020": 117.37,
        "2021": 127.46,
        "2022": 190.38,
        "2023": 162.68,
        "2024": 168.54,
        "2025": 158.22,
        "2026": 153.87
      }
    },
    "cuwr_toronto_composite_incl_supplements": {
      "meta": {
        "statcan_table": "18-10-0140-01",
        "title": "Construction union wage rate index, composite, including selected pay supplements",
        "vector": "v1014033144",
        "geography": "Toronto, Ontario (CMA)",
        "native_frequency": "Monthly",
        "native_base": "Index, 2015=100",
        "panel_period": "January",
        "rebase_year": 1981,
        "coverage": "1981-2026",
        "n_observations": 46,
        "missing_years": [],
        "e_flag_years": [],
        "extraction_date": "2026-10-10",
        "notes": "Composite = all-trades aggregate for Toronto. 'Including selected pay supplements' chosen as closer to employer labour cost than basic rates. Union trades in selected metros only: label as union wage-scale proxy, not all-worker earnings."
      },
      "values_1981_base": {
        "1981": 100.0,
        "1982": 106.62,
        "1983": 119.86,
        "1984": 131.01,
        "1985": 131.71,
        "1986": 137.28,
        "1987": 143.55,
        "1988": 148.78,
        "1989": 158.54,
        "1990": 167.94,
        "1991": 181.18,
        "1992": 193.03,
        "1993": 197.21,
        "1994": 201.74,
        "1995": 210.1,
        "1996": 212.2,
        "1997": 213.59,
        "1998": 220.21,
        "1999": 221.6,
        "2000": 225.78,
        "2001": 231.01,
        "2002": 237.98,
        "2003": 244.6,
        "2004": 251.57,
        "2005": 259.58,
        "2006": 266.55,
        "2007": 273.52,
        "2008": 278.75,
        "2009": 292.68,
        "2010": 301.74,
        "2011": 309.41,
        "2012": 316.72,
        "2013": 325.09,
        "2014": 333.1,
        "2015": 341.46,
        "2016": 351.92,
        "2017": 357.49,
        "2018": 363.76,
        "2019": 370.73,
        "2020": 378.05,
        "2021": 386.06,
        "2022": 394.43,
        "2023": 411.15,
        "2024": 426.83,
        "2025": 442.16,
        "2026": 454.7
      }
    }
  }
}